RivianForms poster hammers out numbers to determine when they will get their R1S.
The short version:
- InsideEVs found a great post on RivianForms.com about projected Rivian delivery times.
- Poster johnking’s ultimate goal was to calculate when they would receive their Rivian R1S.
- johnking gathered information on 231 reservation-holders from the RivianForms.com community, then used that as a sample pool for the entire Rivian reservation-holding population (estimated 10,000).
- Using a combination of public statements from Rivian, Tesla’s history, and large assumptions, johnking was able to map out rough delivery dates based on reservation dates.
- If you ordered a Rivian today, the expected delivery would be 2022 Q2.
So here’s the story… way to go johnking! Sure, there are some pretty large assumptions in their post, but hats off to the amount of sleuthing, data mining, and extremely clear explanations.
There are some things that I disagree with. For example, assembly plant opening times and output quantities. I think putting 500 units/month on the road 2021 Q1 is optimistic. I also think that raising that to 750 units/month in three months is optimistic. johnking sites the relationship with Ford as a benefit when it comes to working out assembly line issues, but I’m not sure I agree with that. Ford has decades of experience, but they also have decades of baggage and red-tape. “We do it this way because that’s how it’s always been done.” (This opinion may be influenced by the fact that I just watched Ford v. Ferrari, and I still have a bad taste in my mouth toward 1960’s Corporate Ford.)
I believe johnking is off by at least a quarter, maybe two. If I’m right, then I’m right. If I’m wrong, then everybody gets their Rivians faster, which is great!